Liquidations Watchlist #7
7 liquidations, 2 potential liquidations and updates on 3 previously mentioned.
Its business as usual in the liquidation space. Some situations will work out better than expected, some will do worse.
I continue to believe the next 5-10 years will be a good period for liquidations due to political, economic and market factors. There will be volatility and cyclicality. M&A and liquidity cycles to navigate. But if you can buy at a decent spread and pick the right stocks then liquidations will be a good strategy.
It's important to remember to use these watchlists as an idea generation tool and to keep track of the ideas via the Master PDF or your own watchlist. Some of the names listed below might not be actionable right now but could present an opportunity in the future.
One recent example is LON:ASLI. If you had it on your watchlist during the recent pullback, assuming they liquidate near current NAV and it takes 2 years from here, you could have picked it up at an estimated 15-25% p.a forward return. This improves if they liquidate before then or above NAV. If they liquidate below NAV or it takes longer to wind up then your downside is less than if you had purchased before the pullback.
I want to highlight a couple of recent shorter term liquidations plays that have finished.
ASX:FPP- results from the meeting were released on 29th January, you could have purchased at the following close for $0.86 and received back $0.9272 in April with a small payment coming in June. On the April payment this is a nice 7.8% return in a couple of months.
LON:LFI- you could have picked this up from 6th November after they announced they had moved to 100% cash. From 18th December you could have picked up shares after they announced they would return proceeds to shareholders. Although the stock was illiquid, you could have bought during this time for between £0.60-0.65. This would have resulted in a 10-20% return in less than 6 months.
LON:MINI- after they announced in November to liquidate, if you were tactical in your buying you could have picked this up for between £0.43 and £0.44 and received a 6-9% return in 6 months.
Today's list contains a mix of operating companies, REITs, energy funds, private equity funds and closed end funds.
Liquidations
Trencor (JSE:TRE) owned container leasing and logistic businesses. In 2017 they started selling assets and returning proceeds to shareholders. On Thursday they announced a special dividend of R0,90 from cash that was held back for indemnity purposes. They also announced they will hold a meeting to wind up and liquidate the company. A further final dividend will be paid on what's left over after costs. In the circular they disclosed R1,20 in cash. After the special dividend you’re left with R0,30. The company has said there would be R0,09 in wind up costs. This will leave about R0,21 for a final dividend assuming the wind up costs are accurate. I’ve contacted the company to confirm this figure as the wording in the circular is slightly confusing. TRE will delist on the 15th July and this is the last day you can trade and receive both dividends. As of Friday it's not trading at a big discount, but one to put on your watchlist for a pullback. NAV R1,11. Timeframe 9 months. Update 02/06/2025- I spoke to the company and there will be more liquidation costs than the R0,09 figure given in the circular.
Invesque (TSE:IVQ) owns 28 aged care assets across North America. The board recently announced they are asking shareholders to approve the sale or lease of all assets in one or more transactions. They are also asking for approval for a capital reduction so they can return cash to shareholders. The share price is down over 95% since IPO in 2016. They have been highly geared since COVID (70%+ debt/assets) and late last year they increased the share count by 16x in a debt for equity swap. I would not trust the management or board of this company. With a book value of $0.17 you might want a bigger MOS to get involved. A lower risk/return play would be to buy the 9.75% Dec-27 bonds at <98% of par. NAV $0.17. Timeframe 2 years.
Pioneer Funds (NYSE:MAV, NYSE:MHI, NYSE:MIO, NYSE:PHD, NYSE:PHT, NYSEAMERICAN:HNW) are 6 closed end funds run by Amundi Asset Management. Amundi merged with a new adviser and the board put to shareholders a vote on a new investment agreement. After an activist campaign by Saba, the fund did not receive enough proxies to approve the agreement. The board then decided to call a meeting to liquidate the funds. Considering the new agreement wasn’t approved by shareholders and Saba’s involvement I’d say odds are high these get liquidated. The current average discount to NAV is 2-3% . However at one point it widened out to 4%. Keep an eye on these, as you get closer to liquidation, you might be able to pick up a nice low risk short term return. You can get NAV info on each ticker here. Timeframe 3 months.
Aseana Properties (LON:ASPL) owns a hotel, mall and resort development land in Malaysia. It has been winding down since 2015. It's what I call a “melting ice cube”- high debt, low/no positive cash flow and illiquid assets. This leads to a constant decline in NAV and high discount. Throw in legal claims against former directors and you have quite the basket case. Good news is the new directors raised $6.5m in capital this year. With $88m in liabilities on $129m of assets, this will be tough to turn around but one to watch. NAV $0.24. Timeframe 5 years.
Digital 9 Infrastructure (LON:DGI9) an investment fund that owns subsea cables, terrestrial fibre, data centres and wireless networks. Shareholders voted to wind down the company in March 2024. A new board and investment manager was voted in October 2024. FY23 to F24 NAV declined by 56%, with one asset written down by 85%. A lot of this has to do with the previous manager not valuing assets properly (due to getting paid on NAV based on their own projections of future performance!!). This caught quite a few investor out who were attracted to the big discount it was trading at. One positive is recent buying from the new board. Another one to watch to see if they can turn it around. You will miss out on some upside, but will be a lower risk play. NAV $0.34. Timeframe 3 years.
Riverstone Energy (LON:RSE) is an energy investment company. They have public and private assets in decarbonisation, oil and gas, renewable energy and power. Recently they announced they will seek approval in August for a wind down. 75% of NAV is in cash ($73m) and public securities ($202m). The public securities are mostly liquid so that part of the portfolio shouldn’t take more than 6 months to sell. The private assets might take a while. Outside of AI the whole private equity/VC space has frozen up and if they want a quick liquidation, they will need to sell at a discount. NAV is before wind up costs and a 5 year termination fee. I estimate this could come out to c10% of current market cap or 7.5% of NAV. NAV £11.35. Timeframe 3 years.
Aquila European Renewables (LON:AERI) invested in a portfolio of renewable energy infrastructure investments. In September 2024 shareholders approved a managed wind-down. Most of their assets are in solar farms, windmills and hydropower stations in Europe. The company recently entered into a S&P agreement for its interest in a Portuguese hydropower asset at book value. Recently they have also entered into a non binding heads of terms with a preferred bidder for the majority of the portfolio. There will be an update on this transaction in June. They have said previously there’s no guarantee that they will be able to sell the portfolio at current valuation. It's interesting to note there seems to be an increase in corporate activity returning to the green energy sector. This should give the market confidence in valuations for these types of companies. NAV £0.71. Timeframe 2 years.
Potential Liquidations
Chrysalis Investments (LON:CHRY) is a pre IPO growth capital investment company. 15% of their NAV is in Klarna, which has recently made headlines for a delayed IPO. There has been recent pressure from Asset Value Investors (AVI) and other investors who own a combined 27%. AVI wants the company to hold another continuation vote in 2026. Naturally the board is not keen so they are hiring Rothschild & Co to consult with shareholders on its capital allocation policy. Findings will be shared in Q4 2025. This is trading at a 35% discount to NAV, so if this doesn’t start to close soon, pressure will build on a wind down. NAV £1.52.
Saker Aviation Services (OTCMKTS:SKAS) used to operate the Downtown Manhattan Heliport. Their concession ended on 29 March 2025. They are effectively a shell with c$8.50 in cash and equivalents. Micro cap investor Tim Erikson owns 10% of the company and recently spoke to the CEO who said “they were looking for a good deal or would liquidate”. The CEO owns over 30%. They’re likely in a cash burn position so book value will decrease over time. One to put on the watchlist. NAV $9.
Updates on Previously Mentioned
Asset Plus (NZE:APL) a single office asset debt free REIT in Auckland, NZ. I wrote about them in Watchlist #1 and #5. In the full year results they announced a non-binding heads of agreement with an occupier that would take occupancy from 65% to 74%. Considering the market is still over supplied, this is positive. They announced a $0.002 quarterly dividend subject to quarterly review. An annualised 4.1% yield while you wait for the cycle to turn. I estimate the annualised dividend ($0.008) is approx the free cashflow level. They’ve kept $10m in cash for tenant incentives. Interestingly, the building valuation cap rate has tightened by 10 bps, the fall in valuation ($0.02) comes, not surprisingly from market rents dropping 15%. NAV $0.324, excluding c$0.015 wind up costs. Even if you get back $0.28 in a few years- not a bad return here.
abrdn European Logistics Income (LON:ASLI) a European logistics REIT. I profiled them in Watchlist #1. In the quarterly update they announced 120,000 sqm was under offer with possible contracts exchanged in the coming weeks. 90,000 sqm is in due diligence/negotiations. They’re hopeful of a mid-Q3 return of capital via B shares. Some assets are still not on the market. I was expecting all of them to be on the market by now. However, the 2 year liquidation is on track. NAV £0.71. Timeframe < 2 years.
ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments (LON:LBOW) predominantly invested in a portfolio of UK real estate debt investments, comprising loans secured by first ranking fixed charges against commercial property investments. I profiled them in Watchlist #2. This week they announced the sale of the property securing the Affinity loan. They will receive in excess of £10m. This is 5% above book value. The remaining loans are on a Southport hotel and residential park homes. They also announced a return of capital. If they distribute the proceeds from the Affinity loan, that could be c30% of market cap at Fridays close. NAV £0.28. Timeframe < 2 years.
Conclusion
What do you think of these? Let me know. Comment below.
I’m searching and looking at liquidations everyday.
Thank you for reading.
Disclaimer: The content in this write-up is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice All opinions expressed are my own. Please do your own research or consult with a professional before making any investment decisions.
Disclosure: I, or members of my family, hold shares in NZE:APL, LON:ASLI and could potentially hold shares in any of the mentioned companies in the future.
Yeah I'm not currently in it, probably a good thing.
Hey I was in SKAS awhile back! Traded them a few times! Caught a 20% run up here and there. Very illiquid tho. Even for me